9.11 SMM internal aluminum morning meeting minutes: overnight aluminum rose 1.19% to close at $1821.5 / ton, breaking through the Brin track, the position increased by 2635 hands to 775000 hands; overnight Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, up 35 yuan to close at 14380 yuan / ton, increasing its position by 1620 hands to 839000 hands. Macro: safe has decided to abolish the restrictions on QFII and RQFII investment quotas, qualified foreign investors can independently remit funds to invest, and enhance the convenience of foreign investors to participate in the domestic financial market; Ford Motor: electric vehicles are expected to account for more than half of the company's passenger car sales by the end of 2020; the Baltics bulk dry goods Index fell 1.2 percent to 2393 points, down four days in a row.
Fundamentals: supply side: SMM data show that China produced 5.566 million tons of metallurgical alumina in August. Alumina prices began to rebound in late August, as of 9.10 SMM alumina quoted price of 2547 yuan / ton; in August, China's electrolytic aluminum production of 3.005 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.48%, month-on-month decrease of 1.96%, after entering September, due to the impact of some capacity increase and resumption of production, the operation capacity scale is expected to pick up at the end of September. Inventory: it is expected that the weekly decline of electrolytic aluminum inventory will be maintained at the level of 20, 000 to 30, 000 tons in September, and that the inventory of electrolytic aluminum will continue to drop by about 100000 tons in September; the consumption end: the starting rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises in August is 72.71%, and the expected starting rate in September is 75%; the starting rate of aluminum profiles in August is 59.18%, which is expected to start next month 61%; the operating rate of aluminum cables is 48.43%, which is expected to start 50% next month; The starting rate of recycled alloy is 56.46%, which is expected to start next month, 58%; the starting rate of primary alloy is 57.6%, and there is not much room for improvement next month.
Spot: the transaction price of Wuxi market in Shanghai is between 14400 yuan and 14420 yuan / ton, and the rising water on the plate is 20 yuan to 30 yuan / ton. The spot price is about 30 yuan / ton higher than that of yesterday. Shanghai and tin in the morning to 14420 yuan / ton, because the holder spot is difficult to come out, the price then concentrated in 14400 to 14410 yuan / ton. As the futures disk shows a back structure, near strong and far weak, middlemen more wait-and-see, the willingness to receive goods has converged compared with the previous period. Downstream manufacturers today on-demand procurement-based, the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not significant, there are no signs of Mid-Autumn Festival stock. Summary: the current short force is the participation of internal and external positive funds driven by logistics logic, the second is the expectation of rising supply pressure in the far month, thus squeezing the profits of the industry, and the third is the participation of some aluminum plants in the guaranteed value plate, but the consumption peak season is gradually coming, and the inventory will continue to decline. Shanghai Aluminum temporarily does not have the conditions for sustained decline. In recent months, we can still try to participate in short-term long positions. Short sellers can try the layout of light positions in the far month (1912-2001). The Back structure will continue to be maintained, with internal and external risks arising from continued weak overseas demand and a lower-than-expected decline in aluminum exports.
(SMM Liang Xuan)
